Many theoretical basis of weather and climate predictability,

Many people wonder how hurricanes really start, but many do not look at the little things. Us humans just see butterflies as harmless, beautiful creatures but we do not know what they are really capable of. When butterflies flap their wings it may cause something substantially important if they do it at the right time.  It may seem impossible but when a butterfly flaps their wings it can cause a hurricane in a whole different place on the other side of the world.  It does not only deal with butterflies but also with our day to day lives. Let us say that a woman missed the bus this morning and the bus ended up getting crashed into a building; one action changed the woman’s life.The Butterfly effect all started with the works of Edward Lorenz. Lorenz was born on May 23, 1917 in West Hartford and died at age 90 of cancer on April 16, 2008 in Cambridge. Lorenz received a degree at Harvard University in mathematics and later on got a doctorate in meteorology and became a professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1987. He was serving the U.S military in weather forecasting when he decided he wanted to do graduate school in meteorology. “The military’s meteorology program that Lorenz completed had been developed by Carl-Gustaf Rossby, a former MIT professor who was an advocate of dynamic meteorology.” In 1991 Lorenz was awarded many awards one of them being the Kyoto Prize.”Lorenz was cited by the KyotoPrize committee for establishing “the theoretical basis of weather and climate predictability, as well as the basis for computer-aided atmospheric physics and meteorology.”(MIT news) Lorenz was getting fascinated in the weather and decided to become a weather forecaster in 1942. “As a boy I was always interested in doing things with numbers, and was also fascinated by changes in the weather,”(Lorenz). He decided to take part in constructing weather models. His models predicted how calm or crazy the weather would be. The computer model he created figured out how fast or slow the winds were going to be. Lorenz was the first to find out about chaotic behavior in his weather models he had created. He found out that doing simple calculations he could end up with random results. ” Lorenz took a closer look and was able to abstract three key ideas: sensitivity to initial conditions, infinite variation, and strange attractors. The sensitivity to initial conditions is also referred to as the butterfly effect, essentially suggesting that seemingly insignificant variations in the initial conditions of a system lead to significantly large, downstream variations in the system.” (Schlager). With this three key ideas he was able to find the exact details of what he was looking for.The butterfly effect does not just last around the ever rounding small moth concept that depends on its wings flapping on one side of the Earth to a giant vortex tornado on the other side. Besides this countless theory would take from the dinosaur period to the 20th century. This theory not only revolves around butterflies but it revolves around way more than that. “The butterfly effect applies to systems beyond weather; indeed, any complicated system may be vulnerable to seemingly small factors. For example, the travel of asteroids in the solar system can be difficult to predict. This is because the paths of asteroids can be affected by many different gravitational pulls throughout the solar system, including the gravity of the sun, of planets, of moons, and even other asteroids.The butterfly effect comes from the chaos theory to describe how a small change or mistake can create a different outcome.”(wiseGeek). The butterfly effect not only dealt with things on the Earth but also with things in space. “Examples of these complex systems that Chaos Theory helped fathom are earth’s weather system, the behavior of water boiling on a stove, migratory patterns of birds, or the spread of vegetation across a continent. Chaos is everywhere, from nature’s most intimate considerations to art of any kind. Chaos-based graphics show up all the time, wherever flocks of little space ships sweep across the movie screen in highly complex ways, or awesome landscapes adorn the theater of some dramatic Oscar scene.”(Abarim Publications). Chaos theory studies more complex mathematical systems. The complex equations have so much motion that the computers have to be keeping track of everything going on. During the time Lorenz’s was discovering many things he had left his office one day to get a cup of coffee and when he came back he had forgotten where he had left off “When Lorenz tried to pick up where he had left off with a calculation, he found that the difference between 0.506 and 0.506127 led to wildly different weather patterns, despite the simplicity of the initial equations.” He had noticed that very small mistakes can create a whole different outcome. This is when he found the idea of sensitivity, “Infinite variation came from the discovery that, as results were tracked for certain equations, they stayed within a designated area, but they never repeated themselves. It was like having an infinite line in a box. The third idea, which came to be termed strange attractors, indicated that there could be stable points that were unreachable”(Schlager). All these new ideas came from a simple rounding error. If Lorenz had not forgot where he had left off he would have never found any new ideas. This also being an example of the butterfly effect.Lorenz was not like all the other scientist’s. Unlike others Lorenz was the only one who would try to solve nonlinear equations and was successful at solving them. The other scientist’s would not even try to solve them and preferred linear equations because those were simple and gave the exact answer. In the 1960s all the scientists started to look at the world differently which was then called the chaos theory. During that time they all started to tackle those nonlinear equations and started to question the exact answers that were given from linear equations. “The solution of these equations finally revealed order and structure within what looked like noise.” (Schlager)There has been many impacts to the butterfly effect. Even today we use the idea of chaos theory in class even though we do not know we are. “Virtually every area of science, including biology, astrophysics, thermodynamics, ecology, and chemistry has identified and studied chaotic systems. Even medicine and social sciences, such as economics, have used the tools of chaos to provide better understanding, to recognize the limits of linear approaches, and to suggest solutions to complex problems. Heart fibrillations, turbulence, chemical reactions, and the distribution of galaxy clusters are just some of the real-world phenomena that have been shown to be governed by nonlinearity.” (Schlager). The idea of chaos is everywhere in classes to better understand problems. The chaos theory allowed computers to be used as an experimental tool. Without this theory there would be no such things at jet aircraft, video games and cellular automata. These computers have created many things and are still currently doing new things. “Fractal art has become a visible instance of chaos and can be found on T-shirts, ties, coffee mugs, and calendars. Fractal equations have become critical to computer animation for commercial movies and games, and have provided a means of data compression. Chaos continues to inspire science fiction writers and to provide rationales for their extrapolations.”(Dizikes). The computers fractal equations plays a big part in today’s world because those first built computers have designed many and countless of things that progressed over time to what is now just like the butterfly effect. Some examples of the butterfly effect is in our mornings if you wake up just 30 minutes earlier you have more time to do new things such as cooking something new for breakfast instead of the same old cereal every morning. If it was not for you waking up earlier you would have never came up with new recipe ideas to make. Another example is a geometry teacher teaching 10th graders chapter 7 being surface area might end up actually teaching them the pythagorean theorem but ends up realizing that she was doing the wrong chapter would blame herself for grading test the night before and not getting enough sleep but if she would have split up all the work and gotten enough sleep she would have still taught the students the wrong subject. Many scientists have disagreed with this because “Since its development, a number of contradictory theories have been described in opposition to chaos theory and the butterfly effect. These argue that the large systems in question, while being immensely complex, still follow some sort of order, and therefore do not merit the descriptor “chaos.” While the number of factors may be large, it is suggested, they are nevertheless quantifiable and finite.Although the mathematical explanation that Lorenz developed might show the possible effects of a butterfly’s wings on weather patterns, there is no evidence that actually proves it. Observation has shown that the effects of a butterfly’s wings seems confined to a very small, localized area. Any large-scale effects seem to be dampened by the system at large.”(Wisegeek). Since it is not “The butterfly effect theory” many disagree with this because it is still not proven to be a fact and have no evidence to say it is true and is actually happening in life. ConclusionIn conclusion I agree with the butterfly effect because it is true on how one little change or mistake can lead to a whole different outcome on life. Many people think that their future is already made for them and they can not do anything to change it. I personally disagree with this because your choices are what create your future like the butterfly effect but at the same time I agree with this because just like they create your future they can also destroy it. Like I stated in my introduction paragraph the butterfly effect can also go both ways. You can either choose your path in life or it can be created for you if you strongly believe in that. This happens everyday in life. An example of this is deciding to go to school or not. Everyone has the choice to go to school everyday or ditch everyday. If you ditch you know what the outcome will be. Everyone has a choice in their life. If everyone’s future was decided before birth than no one would have 2 options in life they would only be given the one option that was decided for them.


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